Estimating in Real Time the Efficacy of Measures to Control Emerging Communicable Diseases
Identifieur interne : 000320 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000319; suivant : 000321Estimating in Real Time the Efficacy of Measures to Control Emerging Communicable Diseases
Auteurs : Simon Cauchemez [Royaume-Uni, France] ; Pierre-Yves Boe Lle [France] ; Guy Thomas [France] ; Alain-Jacques Valleron [France]Source :
- American Journal of Epidemiology [ 0002-9262 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Controlling an emerging communicable disease requires prompt adoption of measures such as quarantine. Assessment of the efficacy of these measures must be rapid as well. In this paper, the authors present a framework to monitor the efficacy of control measures in real time. Bayesian estimation of the reproduction number R (mean number of cases generated by a single infectious person) during an outbreak allows them to judge rapidly whether the epidemic is under control (R < 1). Only counts and time of onset of symptoms, plus tracing information from a subset of cases, are required. Markov chain Monte Carlo and Monte Carlo sampling are used to infer the temporal pattern of R up to the last observation. The operating characteristics of the method are investigated in a simulation study of severe acute respiratory syndrome–like outbreaks. In this particular setting, control measures lacking efficacy (R ≥ 1.1) could be detected after 2 weeks in at least 70% of the epidemics, with less than a 5% probability of a wrong conclusion. When control measures are efficacious (R = 0.5), this situation may be evidenced in 68% of the epidemics after 2 weeks and 92% of the epidemics after 3 weeks, with less than a 5% probability of a wrong conclusion.
Url:
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwj274
Affiliations:
- France, Royaume-Uni
- Angleterre, Grand Londres, Île-de-France
- Londres, Paris
- Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: 000C11
- to stream Istex, to step Curation: 000C11
- to stream Istex, to step Checkpoint: 001712
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 004502
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 004286
- to stream Main, to step Exploration: 004286
- to stream France, to step Extraction: 000320
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:7C3CA3BA10D4581841474B1111486F93EBA9A851Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Estimating in Real Time the Efficacy of Measures to Control Emerging Communicable Diseases</title>
<author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boe Lle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boe Lle">Pierre-Yves Boe Lle</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Thomas, Guy" sort="Thomas, Guy" uniqKey="Thomas G" first="Guy" last="Thomas">Guy Thomas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Valleron, Alain Jacques" sort="Valleron, Alain Jacques" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="Alain-Jacques" last="Valleron">Alain-Jacques Valleron</name>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno>
<idno type="RBID">ISTEX:7C3CA3BA10D4581841474B1111486F93EBA9A851</idno>
<date when="2006" year="2006">2006</date>
<idno type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwj274</idno>
<idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HXZ-BF49TJF9-0/fulltext.pdf</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000C11</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">000C11</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">000C11</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Checkpoint">001712</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001712</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0002-9262:2006:Cauchemez S:estimating:in:real</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">004502</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">004286</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">004286</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/France/Extraction">000320</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main">Estimating in Real Time the Efficacy of Measures to Control Emerging Communicable Diseases</title>
<author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Université Pierre et Marie Curie–Paris 6, UMR-S 707, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Epidemiology, Information Systems, and Modeling (UMR-S 707), Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boe Lle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boe Lle">Pierre-Yves Boe Lle</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Université Pierre et Marie Curie–Paris 6, UMR-S 707, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Epidemiology, Information Systems, and Modeling (UMR-S 707), Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Saint-Antoine, Department of Public Health, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Thomas, Guy" sort="Thomas, Guy" uniqKey="Thomas G" first="Guy" last="Thomas">Guy Thomas</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Université Pierre et Marie Curie–Paris 6, UMR-S 707, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Epidemiology, Information Systems, and Modeling (UMR-S 707), Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Saint-Antoine, Department of Public Health, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Valleron, Alain Jacques" sort="Valleron, Alain Jacques" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="Alain-Jacques" last="Valleron">Alain-Jacques Valleron</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Université Pierre et Marie Curie–Paris 6, UMR-S 707, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>INSERM, Epidemiology, Information Systems, and Modeling (UMR-S 707), Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Saint-Antoine, Department of Public Health, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<monogr></monogr>
<series><title level="j" type="main">American Journal of Epidemiology</title>
<title level="j" type="abbrev">Am. J. Epidemiol.</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1476-6256</idno>
<imprint><publisher>Oxford University Press</publisher>
<date type="e-published">2006</date>
<date type="published">2006</date>
<biblScope unit="vol">164</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue">6</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" from="591">591</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" to="597">597</biblScope>
</imprint>
<idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Controlling an emerging communicable disease requires prompt adoption of measures such as quarantine. Assessment of the efficacy of these measures must be rapid as well. In this paper, the authors present a framework to monitor the efficacy of control measures in real time. Bayesian estimation of the reproduction number R (mean number of cases generated by a single infectious person) during an outbreak allows them to judge rapidly whether the epidemic is under control (R < 1). Only counts and time of onset of symptoms, plus tracing information from a subset of cases, are required. Markov chain Monte Carlo and Monte Carlo sampling are used to infer the temporal pattern of R up to the last observation. The operating characteristics of the method are investigated in a simulation study of severe acute respiratory syndrome–like outbreaks. In this particular setting, control measures lacking efficacy (R ≥ 1.1) could be detected after 2 weeks in at least 70% of the epidemics, with less than a 5% probability of a wrong conclusion. When control measures are efficacious (R = 0.5), this situation may be evidenced in 68% of the epidemics after 2 weeks and 92% of the epidemics after 3 weeks, with less than a 5% probability of a wrong conclusion.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>France</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
</country>
<region><li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Grand Londres</li>
<li>Île-de-France</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Londres</li>
<li>Paris</li>
</settlement>
<orgName><li>Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
</region>
</country>
<country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boe Lle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boe Lle">Pierre-Yves Boe Lle</name>
<name sortKey="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boe Lle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boe Lle">Pierre-Yves Boe Lle</name>
<name sortKey="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boe Lle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boe Lle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boe Lle">Pierre-Yves Boe Lle</name>
<name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
<name sortKey="Thomas, Guy" sort="Thomas, Guy" uniqKey="Thomas G" first="Guy" last="Thomas">Guy Thomas</name>
<name sortKey="Thomas, Guy" sort="Thomas, Guy" uniqKey="Thomas G" first="Guy" last="Thomas">Guy Thomas</name>
<name sortKey="Thomas, Guy" sort="Thomas, Guy" uniqKey="Thomas G" first="Guy" last="Thomas">Guy Thomas</name>
<name sortKey="Valleron, Alain Jacques" sort="Valleron, Alain Jacques" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="Alain-Jacques" last="Valleron">Alain-Jacques Valleron</name>
<name sortKey="Valleron, Alain Jacques" sort="Valleron, Alain Jacques" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="Alain-Jacques" last="Valleron">Alain-Jacques Valleron</name>
<name sortKey="Valleron, Alain Jacques" sort="Valleron, Alain Jacques" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="Alain-Jacques" last="Valleron">Alain-Jacques Valleron</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/France/Analysis
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000320 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/France/Analysis/biblio.hfd -nk 000320 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= SrasV1 |flux= France |étape= Analysis |type= RBID |clé= ISTEX:7C3CA3BA10D4581841474B1111486F93EBA9A851 |texte= Estimating in Real Time the Efficacy of Measures to Control Emerging Communicable Diseases }}
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |